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Dr. Charles Schmitz of Towson University speaks about Yemen's economic and political situation.
11/05/2009

Experts Discuss Current Middle East Problem Areas on Three CCAS Panels

This fall, the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies decided to focus a number of its events on particularly troubled areas of the region—Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. Experts thoughtfully addressed each area in three separate panels, one on opening the Iraqi oil fields, one on Iran's precarious political position, and one on Yemen's current political crisis.

On September 17, 2009, a distinguished panel of oil specialists spoke about “The Implications of the Opening of the Iraqi Oil Fields.” Iraq currently possesses the third largest oil capacity in the world, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, but its potential is largely undeveloped and underutilized. 

Mr. Rick Vierbuchen, Vice President of ExxonMobil Upstream Ventures, spoke first, delivering an industry perspective on the main hindrances to the success of the burgeoning Iraqi oil industry. The problems he discussed include security challenges, a lack of coordinated infrastructure that optimizes resource usage, and a shortage of equipment, skilled workers, and technology. Mr. Vierbuchen noted that as we are only at the beginning of the bid process, it is too early to judge Iraq's ultimate success. He then pointed out improvements necessary for success, such as hydrocarbon legislation, a stable tax structure, and strengthened national security. 

Dr. Raad Alkadiri, Senior Director for Country Strategies in the Markets and Country Strategies Group at PFC Energy, argued that the current bid process has failed Iraq. Dr. Alkadiri spoke about the country's two main challenges in this venture: failing politics and a lack of institutional capacity. He noted that Iraq must determine what shape its state will eventually form and whether it will focus on regional interests or centralization of power; this is critical, he said, to deciding how oil revenue should be divided. 

Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad rounded out the panel by bringing up the question of how oil would play into regional geopolitical issues. Echoing Dr. Alkadiri, he stated that Iraq must decide the kind of state it will be and how revenue should be shared. The constitution, he said, should be used as a way to increase dialogue about these matters. 

The panel ended with the consensus that moving ahead will take a lot of courage for Iraq, but that ultimately the country will be successful in improving oil development. 

At the September 30, 2009, panel “Iran-Domestic Tensions and International Challenges,” Dr. Mehran Kamrava, Interim Dean of Georgetown's SFS-Qatar campus, Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi, Director of Rutgers University's Center for Middle Eastern Studies, and Dr. Herman Franssen, President of International Energy Associates, Inc., discussed various reasons for Iran's current unstable position.

Dr. Kamrava outlined developments leading to Iran's present state. He discussed the precarious balance among Iran's religious traditionalists, conservative pragmatists, and reformists, suggesting that this balance was upset in last summer's election. This in turn disrupted the “elite cohesion” necessary for authoritarian endurance. As a result, he said, “all elements point to an impending change in the Iranian political process.” Yet, he urged audience members not to underestimate Ahmedinejad's popularity, street-level credibility, and charisma. 

Concentrating on U.S.-Iran relations, Dr. Amirahmadi said that Iran may be “the most important critical foreign political challenge” the Obama administration will face. He said that the current paradigm of U.S.-Iran relations is obsolete, and he expressed cautious optimism about Obama's policy of open diplomacy. Dr. Amirahmadi warned that as long as Iran is viewed as a problem maker instead of a problem solver, it will be impossible to work with the Islamic state. However, great change will occur in U.S.-Iranian relations if that perception changes, he said.

Dr. Herman Franssen discussed Iran's current and potential energy consumption and production.  Highlighting the continuing importance of oil in modern society, Dr. Franssen said that “oil is crucial, and thus Iran's oil is crucial.” With respect to Iran's nuclear ambitions, Dr. Franssen expressed doubt over the effectiveness of potential sanctions, because countries like China, Japan, and India, the largest importers of Iranian oil, would not support them.

A common theme that ran through the three speakers' presentations was a call to rethink the way the United States deals with Iran. Each speaker addressed Iran's unrealized potential, with Dr. Franssen noting that “[it] is a 3,000 year old society, and we ought to deal with [it] with the respect [it] deserve[s].”

A panel of three specialists on Yemen convened October 19, 2009, in the CCAS boardroom to discuss the country's current crisis in an event entitled “Yemen on the Brink?: An Assessment.” Dr. Charles Schmitz of Towson University, Dr. Abdu Sharif of the Yemen Heritage and Research Center in McLean, Virginia, and Dr. Sheila Carapico of the University of Richmond each presented their views on the topic in an hour-long program. 

Dr. Schmitz focused on the idea of Yemen as a failed state. He noted that Yemen's economy is more diversified than many assume, and as such, “rather than speaking of an economic collapse, we should be talking about an economic transition.” Dr. Schmitz also looked at Yemen's political situation, refuting theories that emphasize the weakness of the Yemeni state. For instance, he noted that “the idea that the state can't control the tribes is false. There's an articulation of power with the tribes.” 

Dr. Sharif then discussed various theories about why Yemen's conflict is occurring. While some say that the state's shift from providing services to maintaining the regime has caused unrest, others argue that the Yemeni conflict is a proxy conflict, in which clashes between Saudi Wahhabis and Iranian Shiites are being played out. “Whatever the interpretation,” said Dr. Sharif, “the conflict has gotten ugly since it started in mid-August.” He then spoke about roadblocks to improvement of the situation, and what the U.S. should do to ameliorate it. 

Last, Dr. Sheila Carapico examined Yemen from the standpoint of international assistance. She noted that Yemen receives an “amazingly low” amount of aid, particularly in comparison to other poor countries. A current debate in the development community is whether to fund education, water projects, and health care in Yemen or state-strengthening programs such as the police and the military in order to fight piracy and terrorism. The U.S. generally supports the latter. While areas like education are “what Yemenis need,” according to Dr. Carapico, the fear is that primarily funding them may undermine or simply not support the central state and exacerbate the problem of state failure.