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By Noureddine Jebnoun

Four CCAS faculty members recently participated in the conference, "New Avenues for U.S. Middle East Policy," held earlier this month at the Mansfield Center's Defense Critical Language and Culture Program at the University of Montana. The symposium focused on topics including U.S. engagement with Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, and the Maghreb, as well as the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, greater diplomatic engagement toward Arab states, and new approaches and possibilities for cooperation with the Middle East and North Africa under the Obama administration. 

Speakers from CCAS were Dr. John Duke Anthony, CEO of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and an adjunct professor at the Center; Dr. Rochelle Davis, Assistant Professor of Culture and Society; Dr. Michael C. Hudson, Director of the Center; and Dr. Samer Shehata, Assistant Professor of Arab Politics. Other panelists included Dr. John P. Entelis, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at Fordham University; Dr. Clement M. Henry, Professor of Government at the University of Texas at Austin; Mr. Hekmat Karzai, Director of the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies in Kabul; Dr. Mehrdad Kia, Associate Provost for International Programs and the Director of the Central and Southwest Asia Program at the University of Montana; and Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum, Scholar-in-Residence at the Middle East Institute.

Dr. Noureddine Jebnoun, Visiting Professor for Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs at the Mansfield Center and a former CCAS adjunct professor, moderated the debates, along with Brigadier General (Ret.) Russell Howard and Mr. Owen Sirrs, both faculty in the Mansfield Center.

Participants raised a number of issues over the course of the event, including Iran's increased role as a major regional player despite continual denial of that role by the United States. And while the Obama administration will have to engage with Iran on a broad range of issues, including not only the nuclear matter, but also Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, and Gulf security, it seems that U.S. policy toward Iran under Obama will be a continuation of the Bush second term approach—less carrot and more stick. This will not change the strategic calculation within the Iranian leadership, whose goals are to 1) stabilize the Islamic Republic; 2) protect itself; and 3) become recognized by the United States as a country with its own national and legitimate concerns. 

 

Second, violence is now prevalent throughout the region, and the conflicts are linked in a single regional dynamic. Violence has also become the routine form of political expression. With regard to the central conflict in the Middle East—the Palestinian-Israeli conflict—it was pointed out that the hypothetical two state solution has become a chimera, as Israel continues settlement activity. Many intellectual Palestinians think that a one state solution is realistic, though Israel perceives it as a threat to Jewish identity due to Palestinian demographics.

 

A third issue focused on the fact that autocracies that replicate themselves in the Middle East are using new forms of legitimacy; no longer based on pan-Arabism, nationalism, or fighting foreign threats, they are embedded in economic reform and modernization. Such modernization has created a segment of society plugged into the global economy and its standard of living, but another sector has been marginalized and disconnected. There is also a great demand for governance and democracy in the region, but the incumbent regimes are unable to deliver it. This lack of real politics is due to the absence of a peaceful contestation for power and a peaceful transition process from one government to the next.

 

Fourth, the causes of terrorism need to be assessed in addition to fighting it more effectively and more legitimately. The threat is getting worse because the various groups are diffused and not tied organically to al-Qaeda. As such, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) must be seen as an unsuccessful venture and reassessed. The United States must also start acknowledging the interests of the people of the region and its partners throughout the world, thus finding a more collegial way of addressing issues.

 

Panelists also raised the issue that Islamist movements, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, are perceived by a substantial fringe of people in the Muslim and Arab world as important actors because they are locally, socially, and politically rooted. They should also be recognized by the Obama administration as a component within the political reality of the region. Though these movements have a religious dimension, which legitimizes their force and gives them the ability to mobilize, they do not aim to create Islamic theological states. Rather, they want decent political institutions in which religious values would inspire values of pluralism and equality. Non-state actors, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have been established in large part to fill the vacuum left by dysfunctional and corrupt secular political systems.

 

Last, in Afghanistan, the Taliban have lost power but are not defeated. The country has become a battleground between violent drug gangs, and the majority of provincial governors and warlords are now large-scale gangsters. In addition, the United States has remained focused on a military solution for not only Afghanistan, but also Pakistan. This narrow focus on security has led to an increased number of bombings in the Federally Administrated Tribal Area (FATA) and the engagement of special forces on the ground that end up attacking villages and killing innocent civilians. FATA is inhabited by Pashtuns, who number 50 million worldwide. As long as the United States only focuses on security, the mission will fail, because the Pashtuns will feel increasingly alienated by both the Pakistani and Afghan governments who oppress them, as well as by the foreign power that inflicts violence on them. 

 

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Photos:

Samer Shehata Noureddine Jebnoun Marvin Weinbaum Mehrdad Kia John Duke Anthony Michael Hudson Conference participants